Would Ron Paul Have Defeated Barack Obama? An Educated Guess
February 9, 2016
On Nov. 6, 2012, President Obama defeated Republican nominee Mitt Romney by an Electoral College margin of 332−206, with the following electoral map.
But what if the Republican establishment had not gotten behind Romney from the beginning? What if Ron Paul had been the Republican nominee? Could he have defeated Obama in the general election? Let us look at the available data and attempt to answer this question. Before we begin, we must note that this analysis cannot account for the completely different general election campaign and debates that would have occurred between Obama and Paul, the possibility that an establishment Republican-type candidate would have run on a third-party ticket and gained significant support in the event of a Paul nomination, or the possibility that establishment Republicans could have acted faithlessly in the Electoral College in the event of a Paul nomination.
Let us begin by listing the major considerations of such a calculation. We start with Mitt Romney’s and Barack Obama’s vote totals, and then add or subtract the following factors as follows:
- Add the number of voters who cast a write-in vote for Ron Paul to the Republican column. Let us call this V(Paul).
- Add the number of voters who chose not to vote because Ron Paul was not on the ballot to the Republican column. Let us call this V(Disaffected).
- Add the number of voters who voted for a third party candidate but would have voted for Paul to the Republican column. Let us call this V(Third).
- Add the number of voters who voted for Obama over Romney but would have voted for Paul over Obama to the Republican column. Subtract this number from the Democratic column. Let us call this V(Spite).
- Subtract the number of voters who voted for Romney over Obama but would have stayed home or voted for a third party candidate in the event of a Paul nomination from the Republican column. Let us call this V(Die-hard Romney).
- Add the number of voters who stayed home or voted for a third party candidate but would have voted for Obama to try to defeat Paul to the Democratic column. Let us call this V(Third Anti-Paul).
- Subtract the number of voters who voted for Romney over Obama but would have voted for Obama to try to defeat Paul from the Republican column. Add this number to the Democratic column. Let us call this V(Romney Anti-Paul).
- Subtract the number of voters who voted for Obama over Romney but would have stayed home or voted for a third party candidate in the event of a Paul nomination from the Democratic column. Let us call this V(Anti-Romney).
The estimated vote for Ron Paul can be expressed as
V'(Paul)=V(Romney)+V(Paul)+V(Disaffected)+V(Third)+V(Spite)−V(Die-hard Romney)−V(Romney Anti-Paul), (1)
and the estimated Obama vote can be expressed as
V'(Obama)=V(Obama)−V(Spite)+V(Third Anti-Paul)+V(Romney Anti-Paul)−V(Anti-Romney). (2)
Now let us attempt to determine the values of the factors. In states with semi-open (independents allowed, members of other parties not allowed) or closed primary processes (only Republicans allowed), it is necessary to multiply by 1.5 or 2, respectively, in order to account for Paul supporters who were unable to vote for him because of their party affiliation. Let us call this constant the C-value.
V(Paul) can be directly used on a limited basis, as some states do not require a write-in candidate to file a form to be counted as a write-in candidate. In those states, we can simply use the vote count for V(Paul). We can then compare the percentage of the known write-ins to the percentage of votes Paul received in the Republican primaries and caucuses from those states and account for the type of primary or caucus as well as the total number of general election votes to get an average ratio. This ratio is 0.072, and it can be used to estimate V(Paul) for the states that did not count write-in votes for Paul.
V(Disaffected) is impossible to calculate, because there is no way to count a non-vote. This means that an educated guess will have to suffice. Robin Koerner conducted a poll in August 2012 of Paul supporters and found that 12% of Paul supporters intended to do something other than vote for Gary Johnson (66%; this amount is already present in V(Johnson)), write-in Ron Paul (16%), or vote for Mitt Romney (6%; this amount is already present in V(Romney)). As part of this 12% would be supporters of Constitution Party nominee Virgil Goode who are accounted for in V(Third), another part would be “spite voters” for Obama who are accounted for in V(Spite), and it is uncharacteristic for Paul supporters to do nothing, it is best to be conservative in our guess of how many Paul supporters decided not to vote at all. A reasonable figure would be 4%. Therefore, V(Disaffected) should be 4% of Paul’s primary vote in states with open primaries or caucuses, where all of Paul’s supporters were free to vote for him. The problem in calculating comes from so-called “Blue Republicans” who were registered Democratic, and were therefore not allowed to vote in closed Republican primaries and caucuses. A survey done in Iowa before the January 3 caucus showed that only 51% of those who supported Ron Paul self-identified as Republicans. In New Hampshire, the figure was 56%. So in semi-open primary and caucus states, V(Disaffected) should be 6% of Paul’s primary vote; and in closed primary and caucus states, V(Disaffected) should be 8% of Paul’s primary vote.
V(Third) mostly consists of Johnson voters, with a few Goode voters mixed in. It is unlikely to include voters who supported Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Peace and Freedom Party nominee Roseanne Barr, or Justice Party nominee Rocky Anderson, as they are mostly a far-left element with little interest in an economic and social conservative like Paul. Johnson publicly stated that he would not have continued running if it meant running against Paul as the Republican nominee. Not all Johnson voters would have supported Paul due to a few differences on social issues, but as Paul was the Libertarian nominee in 1988 and is still highly regarded by most people in the Libertarian Party, most of Johnson’s voters would have supported Paul. As for Goode, while Paul did not endorse anyone in 2012, he endorsed Chuck Baldwin, the Constitution Party nominee, in 2008. Goode received in 2012 about 60% of the votes that Baldwin received in 2008. This appears to indicate that a Paul endorsement can significantly increase a Constitution Party nominee’s turnout. Therefore, let us assign V(Third) a value of 2/3 of Virgil Goode’s vote who are not part of the 12% of Paul supporters mentioned in V(Disaffected), as well as 90% of the Gary Johnson voters who are not part of the 66% of Paul supporters mentioned in V(Disaffected). Perhaps 4% of all Paul supporters would have looked at Goode as the next best option. The final value of V(Third) is then 2/3 of other Goode voters plus 90% of other Johnson voters plus:
70% of Paul’s primary vote in open primary and caucus states;
105% of Paul’s primary vote in semi-closed primary and caucus states; and
140% of Paul’s primary vote in closed primary and caucus states.
Note that in states with a small turnout for Johnson or Goode relative to Paul’s primary vote, one or both of the first two parts of this factor may be negative. In such cases, the negative parts of this factor should be set to zero, as the purpose is to count positive voters for Johnson or Goode who would vote for Paul.
V(Spite) consists of two main groups: voters who are Democrats but would have crossed party lines to vote for Paul, but did not cross party lines to vote for Romney; and so-called “spite voters” who chose to vote for Obama because their candidate (Paul) did not become the Republican nominee. This group of voters is related to the groups of voters who make up V(Disaffected) and V(Third), but these voters decided that sticking it to Romney and the Republican establishment by voting for his major-party opponent was a better option than staying home or casting a third-party protest vote. This amount is probably about 4% of Paul supporters, but there are also “Blue Republicans” in this group. A good estimate is that V(Spite) is roughly equal to V(Disaffected).
V(Die-hard Romney) consists of people who voted for Romney as a vote against Obama, but would have found Paul to be objectionable as well. They would not have voted for Paul as a vote against Obama, choosing to either support a third party candidate or not vote instead. These voters would mostly be those who supported Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich in the Republican primaries, and could not tolerate Paul’s positions on social issues and/or foreign policy enough to hold their noses and vote for him. The last PPP poll to compare an Obama/Romney race to an Obama/Paul race found that 82% of Republican respondents said they would ultimately be willing to back Romney, while 76% of Republican respondents said they would ultimately be willing to back Paul. Therefore, a reasonable value for V(Die-hard Romney) should not exceed 6% of this 82%, or 7.32% of the Romney vote. Let us assign V(Die-hard Romney) a value of 5% of Romney’s vote total.
V(Third Anti-Paul) consists of left-leaning voters who did not turn out against Romney but would have turned out against Paul. But the Democratic base had an abnormally high turnout like they did in 2008. Any significant value for V(Third Anti-Paul) would probably have to be diverted from the vote totals of left-wing third party candidates, such as Stein, Barr, and Anderson. But the voters who supported these candidates are mostly far-left voters who are disappointed in Obama’s record as President, and are unlikely to vote for him in almost any case. Let us assign V(Third Anti-Paul) a value of 20% of the vote totals of Stein, Barr, and Anderson.
V(Romney Anti-Paul) consists of two main groups: voters who are Democrats but crossed party lines to vote for Mitt Romney, but would not have crossed party lines to vote for Paul; and so-called “spite voters” who would have chosen to vote for Obama because their candidate (Romney) would not have become the Republican nominee. This group of voters is related to the group of voters who make up V(Die-hard Romney), but these voters would have decided that sticking it to Paul and the libertarian wing of the Republican Party by voting for his major-party opponent was a better option than staying home or casting a third-party protest vote. Due to the small number of Democrats who voiced support for Romney, the reluctance of Republicans to back Romney in the primaries, and the nearly universal hatred shown by Republicans toward Obama, this factor is probably rather small. Let us assign V(Romney Anti-Paul) a value of 1% of Romney’s vote total.
V(Anti-Romney) consists of people who voted for Obama in order to vote against Romney, but would not care about an Obama/Paul race. These voters would tend to be progressives who are disappointed enough in Obama to not vote for him on his own merits, but voted for him because they oppose Romney. These voters would be indifferent to Paul, not supporting him enough to vote for him but not opposing him enough to vote against him, so they would vote for Stein, Barr, or Anderson, or stay home. Given Paul’s polarizing nature on issues that are important to progressives, V(Anti-Romney) is probably small enough to be safely assigned a value of zero.
Finally, we must modify the Paul primary vote to account for the difference between primary turnout and general election turnout. This constant, which we will call T, has a different value in each state, and is defined as the number of general election voters in that state divided by twice the number of Republican primary or caucus voters in that state. (The factor of 2 would not apply if there had been a serious primary challenger to Barack Obama. In that case, we could add the Democratic primary figures into the denominator instead.) To avoid anomalous results and keep the modified vote total below the total number of registered voters in each state, let us reduce all T-values greater than 15 to 15. So our final equations are
V'(Paul)=V(Romney)+T*[V(Paul)+2*V(Disaffected)+V(Third)]−V(Die-hard Romney)−V(Romney Anti-Paul), (3)
with the Johnson and/or Goode parts of V(Third) being excluded when they have negative values, and
V'(Obama)=V(Obama)−T*V(Disaffected)+V(Third Anti-Paul)+V(Romney Anti-Paul). (4)
Let us now apply equations (3) and (4) to the national popular vote, as well as to the vote in each state.
Alabama: The general election result was 1,255,925 votes for Mitt Romney, 795,696 votes for Barack Obama, 12,328 votes for Gary Johnson, 3,397 votes for Jill Stein, 2,981 votes for Virgil Goode, and 4,011 votes for other candidates. Alabama has an open primary (C=1), and there were 30,950 primary votes for Ron Paul. Alabama’s T-value is 1.666. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 1,225,775 votes for Ron Paul and 806,872 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Alabama’s 9 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Alaska: The general election result was 164,676 votes for Mitt Romney, 122,640 votes for Barack Obama, 7,392 votes for Gary Johnson, 2,917 votes for Jill Stein, and 2,870 votes for other candidates. Alaska has an open caucus (C=1), and there were 3,410 caucus votes for Ron Paul. Alaska’s T-value is 11.366. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 237,870 votes for Ron Paul and 123,320 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Alaska’s 3 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Arizona: The general election result was 1,233,654 votes for Mitt Romney, 1,025,232 votes for Barack Obama, 32,100 votes for Gary Johnson, 7,816 votes for Jill Stein, 289 votes for Virgil Goode, 119 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 44 votes for other candidates. Arizona has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 43,952 primary votes for Ron Paul. Arizona’s T-value is 2.253. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 1,328,462 votes for Ron Paul and 1,031,234 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Arkansas: The general election result was 647,744 votes for Mitt Romney, 394,409 votes for Barack Obama, 16,276 votes for Gary Johnson, 9,305 votes for Jill Stein, and 1,734 votes for other candidates. Arkansas has an open primary (C=1), and there were 20,399 primary votes for Ron Paul. Arkansas’ T-value is 3.510. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 674,069 votes for Ron Paul and 399,884 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Arkansas’s 6 electoral votes, as Romney did.
California: The general election result was 7,854,285 votes for Barack Obama, 4,839,958 votes for Mitt Romney, 143,221 votes for Gary Johnson, 85,638 votes for Jill Stein, 53,824 votes for Roseanne Barr, 21,461 votes for Ron Paul, 992 votes for Rocky Anderson, 503 votes for Virgil Goode, and 38,665 votes for other candidates. California has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 199,246 primary votes for Ron Paul. California’s T-value is 3.387. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 7,876,793 votes for Barack Obama and 5,699,997 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins California’s 55 electoral votes.
Colorado: The general election result was 1,323,101 votes for Barack Obama, 1,185,243 votes for Mitt Romney, 35,545 votes for Gary Johnson, 7,508 votes for Jill Stein, 6,234 votes for Virgil Goode, 5,059 votes for Roseanne Barr, 1,260 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 5,571 votes for other candidates. Colorado has a closed caucus (C=2), and there were 7,759 caucus votes for Ron Paul. Colorado’s T-value is 15. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 1,773,281 votes for Ron Paul and 1,328,408 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Colorado’s 9 electoral votes, which Romney failed to do.
Connecticut: The general election result was 905,083 votes for Barack Obama, 634,892 votes for Mitt Romney, 12,580 votes for Gary Johnson, 5,487 votes for Rocky Anderson, 863 votes for Jill Stein, and 55 votes for other candidates. Connecticut has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 8,032 primary votes for Ron Paul. Connecticut’s T-value is 13.083. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 904,295 votes for Barack Obama and 854,732 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins Connecticut’s 7 electoral votes.
Delaware: The general election result was 242,584 votes for Barack Obama, 165,484 votes for Mitt Romney, 3,882 votes for Gary Johnson, 1,940 votes for Jill Stein, 23 votes for Virgil Goode, and 8 votes for other candidates. Delaware has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 3,017 primary votes for Ron Paul. Delaware’s T-value is 7.238. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 242,880 votes for Barack Obama and 203,663 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins Delaware’s 3 electoral votes.
District of Columbia: The general election result was 267,070 votes for Barack Obama, 21,381 votes for Mitt Romney, 2,458 votes for Jill Stein, 2,083 votes for Gary Johnson, and 772 votes for other candidates. DC has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 621 primary votes for Ron Paul. DC’s T-value is 15. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 267,030 votes for Barack Obama and 57,952 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins DC’s 3 electoral votes.
Florida: The general election result was 4,237,756 votes for Barack Obama, 4,163,447 votes for Mitt Romney, 44,726 votes for Gary Johnson, 8,947 votes for Jill Stein, 8,154 votes for Roseanne Barr, 2,607 votes for Virgil Goode, 1,754 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 6,788 votes for other candidates. Florida has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 117,461 primary votes for Ron Paul. Florida’s T-value is 2.533. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 4,420,933 votes for Ron Paul and 4,259,357 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Florida’s 29 electoral votes, which Romney failed to do.
Georgia: The general election result was 2,078,688 votes for Mitt Romney, 1,773,827 votes for Barack Obama, 45,324 votes for Gary Johnson, 1,516 votes for Jill Stein, 432 votes for Virgil Goode, 154 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 109 votes for other candidates. Georgia has an open primary (C=1), and there were 59,100 primary votes for Ron Paul. Georgia’s T-value is 2.163. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 2,066,809 votes for Ron Paul and 1,789,834 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Hawaii: The general election result was 306,658 votes for Barack Obama, 121,015 votes for Mitt Romney, 3,840 votes for Gary Johnson, and 3,184 votes for Jill Stein. Hawaii has an open caucus (C=1), and there were 1,975 caucus votes for Ron Paul. Hawaii’s T-value is 15. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 307,320 votes for Barack Obama and 171,295 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins Hawaii’s 4 electoral votes.
Idaho: The general election result was 420,911 votes for Mitt Romney, 212,787 votes for Barack Obama, 9,453 votes for Gary Johnson, 4,402 votes for Jill Stein, 2,499 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 2,222 votes for Virgil Goode. Idaho has a closed caucus (C=2), and there were 8,086 caucus votes for Ron Paul. Idaho’s T-value is 7.301. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 527,906 votes for Ron Paul and 213,654 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Idaho’s 4 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Illinois: The general election result was 3,019,512 votes for Barack Obama, 2,135,216 votes for Mitt Romney, 56,229 votes for Gary Johnson, 30,222 votes for Jill Stein, 419 votes for Virgil Goode, 185 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 231 votes for other candidates. Illinois has a semi-closed primary (C=1.5), and there were 87,044 primary votes for Ron Paul. Illinois’ T-value is 2.808. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 3,032,281 votes for Barack Obama and 2,319,620 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins Illinois’s 20 electoral votes.
Indiana: The general election result was 1,420,543 votes for Mitt Romney, 1,152,887 votes for Barack Obama, 50,111 votes for Gary Johnson, 625 votes for Jill Stein, 290 votes for Virgil Goode, and 78 votes for other candidates. Indiana has an open primary (C=1), and there were 98,487 primary votes for Ron Paul. Indiana’s T-value is 2.065. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 1,508,648 votes for Ron Paul and 1,159,084 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Indiana’s 11 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Iowa: The general election result was 822,544 votes for Barack Obama, 730,617 votes for Mitt Romney, 12,926 votes for Gary Johnson, 3,769 votes for Jill Stein, 3,038 votes for Virgil Goode, and 9,286 votes for other candidates. Iowa has a closed caucus (C=2), and there were 26,036 caucus votes for Ron Paul. Iowa’s T-value is 6.511. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 982,200 votes for Ron Paul and 817,042 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Iowa’s 6 electoral votes, which Romney failed to do.
Kansas: The general election result was 692,634 votes for Mitt Romney, 440,726 votes for Barack Obama, 20,456 votes for Gary Johnson, 5,204 votes for Chuck Baldwin, 714 votes for Jill Stein, 95 votes for Rocky Anderson, 58 votes for Roseanne Barr, and 84 votes for other candidates. For this analysis, Baldwin’s votes will be counted as though they were Virgil Goode votes because the Kansas Reform Party usually runs the Constitution Party nominee, but it did not update its nominee from 2008. Kansas has a closed caucus (C=2), and there were 3,767 caucus votes for Ron Paul. Kansas’ T-value is 15. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 797,191 votes for Ron Paul and 443,305 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Kansas’s 6 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Kentucky: The general election result was 1,087,190 votes for Mitt Romney, 679,370 votes for Barack Obama, 17,063 votes for Gary Johnson, 6,337 votes for Jill Stein, 245 votes for Virgil Goode, 60 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 6,947 votes for other candidates. Kentucky has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 22,074 primary votes for Ron Paul. Kentucky’s T-value is 5.101. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 1,217,951 votes for Ron Paul and 682,513 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Kentucky’s 8 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Louisiana: The general election result was 1,152,262 votes for Mitt Romney, 809,141 votes for Barack Obama, 18,157 votes for Gary Johnson, 6,978 votes for Jill Stein, 2,508 votes for Virgil Goode, 1,368 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 3,651 votes for other candidates. Louisiana has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 11,467 primary votes for Ron Paul. Louisiana’s T-value is 5.349. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 1,241,105 votes for Ron Paul and 817,426 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Louisiana’s 8 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Maine: The general election result was 401,306 votes for Barack Obama, 292,276 votes for Mitt Romney, 9,352 votes for Gary Johnson, 8,119 votes for Jill Stein, 2,305 votes for Ron Paul, 62 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 30 votes for other candidates. Maine has a closed caucus (C=2), and there were 2,258 caucus votes for Ron Paul. Maine’s T-value is 15. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 436,382 votes for Ron Paul and 403,155 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Maine’s 4 electoral votes, which Romney failed to do.
Maryland: The general election result was 1,677,844 votes for Barack Obama, 971,869 votes for Mitt Romney, 30,195 votes for Gary Johnson, 17.110 votes for Jill Stein, 453 votes for Virgil Goode, 204 votes for Rocky Anderson, 64 votes for Roseanne Barr, and 9,588 votes for other candidates. Maryland has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 23,609 primary votes for Ron Paul. Maryland’s T-value is 5.242. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 1,680,748 votes for Barack Obama and 1,196,008 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins Maryland’s 10 electoral votes.
Massachusetts: The general election result was 1,921,290 votes for Barack Obama, 1,188,314 votes for Mitt Romney, 30,920 votes for Gary Johnson, 20,691 votes for Jill Stein, and 6,552 votes for other candidates. Massachusetts has a semi-closed primary (C=1.5), and there were 35,219 primary votes for Ron Paul. Massachusetts’s T-value is 4.276. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 1,928,276 votes for Barack Obama and 1,329,170 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins Massachusetts’s 11 electoral votes.
Michigan: The general election result was 2,564,569 votes for Barack Obama, 2,115,256 votes for Mitt Romney, 21,897 votes for Jill Stein, 16,119 votes for Virgil Goode, 7,774 votes against Gary Johnson, 5,147 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 199 votes for other candidates. Michigan has an open primary (C=1), and there were 115,911 primary votes for Ron Paul. Michigan’s T-value is 2.374. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 2,580,124 votes for Barack Obama and 2,237,393 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins Michigan’s 16 electoral votes.
Minnesota: The general election result was 1,546,167 votes for Barack Obama, 1,320,225 votes for Mitt Romney, 35,098 votes for Gary Johnson, 13,023 votes for Jill Stein, 3,722 votes for Virgil Goode, 1,996 votes for Rocky Anderson, 46 votes for Roseanne Barr, and 16,284 votes for other candidates. Minnesota has an open caucus (C=1), and there were 13,282 caucus votes for Ron Paul. Minnesota’s T-value is 15. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 1,782,427 votes for Ron Paul and 1,554,413 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes, which Romney failed to do.
Mississippi: The general election result was 710,746 votes for Mitt Romney, 562,949 votes for Barack Obama, 6,676 votes for Gary Johnson, 2,609 votes for Virgil Goode, 1,588 votes for Jill Stein, and 1,016 votes for other candidates. Mississippi has an open primary (C=1), and there were 12,955 primary votes for Ron Paul. Mississippi’s T-value is 2.186. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 694,906 votes for Ron Paul and 569,242 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Mississippi’s 6 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Missouri: The general election result was 1,482,440 votes for Mitt Romney, 1,223,796 votes for Barack Obama, 43,151 votes for Gary Johnson, and 7,936 votes for Virgil Goode. Missouri has an open caucus (C=1), and there were 30,647 caucus votes for Ron Paul. Missouri’s T-value is 5.467. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 1,660,269 votes for Ron Paul and 1,231,919 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Missouri’s 10 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Montana: The general election result was 267,928 votes for Mitt Romney, 201,839 votes for Barack Obama, 14,165 votes for Gary Johnson, 59 votes for Rocky Anderson, 39 votes for Virgil Goode, 6 votes for Roseanne Barr, and 12 votes for other candidates. Montana has an open primary (C=1), and there were 20,227 primary votes for Ron Paul. Montana’s T-value is 1.723. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 281,563 votes for Ron Paul and 203,137 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Montana’s 3 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Nebraska: The general election result was 475,064 votes for Mitt Romney, 302,081 votes for Barack Obama, 11,109 votes for Gary Johnson, and 6,125 votes for other candidates. Nebraska has a semi-closed primary (C=1.5), and there were 18,508 primary votes for Ron Paul. Nebraska’s T-value is 2.142. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 497,259 votes for Ron Paul and 304,453 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Nebraska’s 5 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Nevada: The general election result was 531,373 votes for Barack Obama, 463,567 votes for Mitt Romney, 10,968 votes for Gary Johnson, 3,240 votes for Virgil Goode, and 5,770 votes for other candidates. Nevada has a closed caucus (C=2), and there were 6,177 caucus votes for Ron Paul. Nevada’s T-value is 15. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 709,330 votes for Ron Paul and 528,596 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Nevada’s 6 electoral votes, which Romney failed to do.
New Hampshire: The general election result was 369,561 votes for Barack Obama, 329,918 votes for Mitt Romney, 8,212 votes for Gary Johnson, 1,374 votes for Ron Paul, 708 votes for Virgil Goode, 324 votes for Jill Stein, and 875 votes for other candidates. New Hampshire has a semi-closed primary (C=1.5), and there were 56,872 primary votes for Ron Paul. New Hampshire’s T-value is 1.431. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 414,162 votes for Ron Paul and 368,043 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes, which Romney failed to do.
New Jersey: The general election result was 2,125,101 votes for Barack Obama, 1,477,568 votes for Mitt Romney, 21,045 votes for Gary Johnson, 9,888 votes for Jill Stein, 2,064 votes for Virgil Goode, 1,724 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 2,902 votes for other candidates. New Jersey has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 24,017 primary votes for Ron Paul. New Jersey’s T-value is 7.864. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 2,127,090 votes for Barack Obama and 1,738,459 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes.
New Mexico: The general election result was 415,335 votes for Barack Obama, 335,788 votes for Mitt Romney, 27,788 votes for Gary Johnson, 2,691 votes for Jill Stein, 1,174 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 982 votes for Virgil Goode. New Mexico has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 9,363 primary votes for Ron Paul. New Mexico’s T-value is 4.349. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 468,163 votes for Ron Paul and 416,208 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins New Mexico’s 5 electoral votes, which Romney failed to do.
New York: The general election result was 4,485,781 votes for Barack Obama, 2,490,431 votes for Mitt Romney, 47,256 votes for Gary Johnson, 39,982 votes for Jill Stein, 6,274 votes for Virgil Goode, 217 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 11,258 votes for other candidates. New York has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 27,699 primary votes for Ron Paul. New York’s T-value is 15. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 4,485,486 votes for Barack Obama and 3,459,220 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins New York’s 29 electoral votes.
North Carolina: The general election result was 2,270,395 votes for Mitt Romney, 2,178,391 votes for Barack Obama, 44,515 votes for Gary Johnson, 534 votes for Virgil Goode, and 11,537 votes for other candidates. North Carolina has a semi-closed primary (C=1.5), and there were 108,217 primary votes for Ron Paul. North Carolina’s T-value is 2.315. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 2,454,467 votes for Ron Paul and 2,186,066 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, as Romney did.
North Dakota: The general election result was 188,163 votes for Mitt Romney, 124,827 votes for Barack Obama, 5,231 votes for Gary Johnson, 1,361 votes for Jill Stein, 1,185 votes for Virgil Goode, and 1,860 votes for other candidates. North Dakota has a closed caucus (C=2), and there were 3,816 caucus votes for Ron Paul. North Dakota’s T-value is 14.214. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 300,527 votes for Ron Paul and 123,358 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins North Dakota’s 3 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Ohio: The general election result was 2,827,710 votes for Barack Obama, 2,661,433 votes for Mitt Romney, 49,493 votes for Gary Johnson, 18,574 votes for Jill Stein, 8,152 votes for Virgil Goode, and 15,483 votes for other candidates. Ohio has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 113,256 primary votes for Ron Paul. Ohio’s T-value is 2.299. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 2,947,694 votes for Ron Paul and 2,837,211 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, which Romney failed to do.
Oklahoma: The general election result was 891,325 votes for Mitt Romney and 443,547 votes for Barack Obama. Oklahoma has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 27,596 primary votes for Ron Paul. Oklahoma’s T-value is 2.329. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 947,441 votes for Ron Paul and 447,318 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Oklahoma’s 7 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Oregon: The general election result was 970,488 votes for Barack Obama, 754,175 votes for Mitt Romney, 24,089 votes for Gary Johnson, 19,427 votes for Jill Stein, 4,432 votes for Will Christensen, 3,384 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 17,707 votes for other candidates. For this analysis, Christensen’s votes will be counted as though they were Virgil Goode votes because the Oregon Constitution Party chose Christensen as its nominee instead of Goode. Oregon has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 36,810 primary votes for Ron Paul. Oregon’s T-value is 3.115. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 973,420 votes for Barack Obama and 909,002 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins Oregon’s 7 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania: The general election result was 2,990,274 votes for Barack Obama, 2,680,434 votes for Mitt Romney, 49,991 votes for Gary Johnson, 21,341 votes for Jill Stein, 383 votes for Virgil Goode, and 11,247 votes for other candidates. Pennsylvania has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 106,148 primary votes for Ron Paul. Pennsylvania’s T-value is 3.560. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 3,163,854 votes for Ron Paul and 2,991,116 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes, which Romney failed to do.
Rhode Island: The general election result was 279,677 votes for Barack Obama, 157,204 votes for Mitt Romney, 4,388 votes for Gary Johnson, 2,421 votes for Jill Stein, 617 votes for Ron Paul, 430 votes for Virgil Goode, 416 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 896 votes for other candidates. Rhode Island has a semi-closed primary (C=1.5), and there were 3,473 primary votes for Ron Paul. Rhode Island’s T-value is 15. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 278,691 votes for Barack Obama and 241,456 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins Rhode Island’s 4 electoral votes.
South Carolina: The general election result was 1,071,645 votes for Mitt Romney, 865,941 votes for Barack Obama, 16,321 votes for Gary Johnson, 5,446 votes for Jill Stein, and 4,765 votes for Virgil Goode. South Carolina has an open primary (C=1), and there were 78,360 primary votes for Ron Paul. South Carolina’s T-value is 1.627. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 1,116,065 votes for Ron Paul and 872,648 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins South Carolina’s 9 electoral votes, as Romney did.
South Dakota: The general election result was 210,610 votes for Mitt Romney, 145,039 votes for Barack Obama, 5,795 votes for Gary Johnson, and 2,371 votes for Virgil Goode. South Dakota has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 6,657 primary votes for Ron Paul. South Dakota’s T-value is 3.531. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 245,585 votes for Ron Paul and 145,265 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins South Dakota’s 3 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Tennessee: The general election result was 1,462,330 votes for Mitt Romney, 960,709 votes for Barack Obama, 18,623 votes for Gary Johnson, 6,515 votes for Jill Stein, 6,022 votes for Virgil Goode, 2,639 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 1,739 votes for other candidates. Tennessee has an open primary (C=1), and there were 50,156 primary votes for Ron Paul. Tennessee’s T-value is 2.217. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 1,473,815 votes for Ron Paul and 972,716 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Tennessee’s 11 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Texas: The general election result was 4,569,843 votes for Mitt Romney, 3,308,124 votes for Barack Obama, 88,580 votes for Gary Johnson, 24,657 votes for Jill Stein, 1,287 votes for Virgil Goode, 426 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 934 votes for other candidates. Texas has an open primary (C=1), and there were 174,207 primary votes for Ron Paul. Texas’ T-value is 2.757. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 4,705,147 votes for Ron Paul and 3,339,624 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Texas’s 38 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Utah: The general election result was 740,600 votes for Mitt Romney, 251,813 votes for Barack Obama, 12,572 votes for Gary Johnson, 5,335 votes for Rocky Anderson, 3,817 votes for Jill Stein, 2,871 votes for Virgil Goode, 18 for Roseanne Barr, and 414 votes for other candidates. Utah has a closed primary (C=2), and there were 11,520 primary votes for Ron Paul. Utah’s T-value is 2.144. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 741,381 votes for Ron Paul and 259,077 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Utah’s 6 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Vermont: The general election result was 199,239 votes for Barack Obama, 92,698 votes for Mitt Romney, 3,487 votes for Gary Johnson, 1,128 votes for Rocky Anderson, 717 votes for Ron Paul, 594 votes for Jill Stein, 13 votes for Virgil Goode, 9 votes for Roseanne Barr, and 1,405 votes for other candidates. Vermont has an open primary (C=1), and there were 15,391 primary votes for Ron Paul. Vermont’s T-value is 2.459. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 198,998 votes for Barack Obama and 119,401 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins Vermont’s 3 electoral votes.
Virginia: The general election result was 1,971,820 votes for Barack Obama, 1,822,522 votes for Mitt Romney, 31,216 votes for Gary Johnson, 13,058 votes for Virgil Goode, 8,627 votes for Jill Stein, 76 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 7,170 votes for other candidates. Virginia has an open primary (C=1), and there were 107,451 primary votes for Ron Paul. Virginia’s T-value is 7.257. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 2,409,871 votes for Ron Paul and 1,960,595 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, which Romney failed to do.
Washington: The general election result was 1,755,396 votes for Barack Obama, 1,290,670 votes for Mitt Romney, 42,202 votes for Gary Johnson, 20,928 votes for Jill Stein, 8,851 votes for Virgil Goode, 4,946 votes for Rocky Anderson, and 2,523 votes for other candidates. Washington has a closed caucus (C=2), and there were 12,594 caucus votes for Ron Paul. Washington’s T-value is 15. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 2,061,302 votes for Ron Paul and 1,758,365 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Washington’s 12 electoral votes, which Romney failed to do.
West Virginia: The general election result was 417,655 votes for Mitt Romney, 238,269 votes for Barack Obama, 6,302 votes for Gary Johnson, 4,406 votes for Jill Stein, and 3,806 votes for other candidates. West Virginia has a semi-closed primary (C=2), and there were 12,412 primary votes for Ron Paul. West Virginia’s T-value is 2.982. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 439,922 votes for Ron Paul and 241,106 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins West Virginia’s 5 electoral votes, as Romney did.
Wisconsin: The general election result was 1,620,985 votes for Barack Obama, 1,407,966 votes for Mitt Romney, 20,439 votes for Gary Johnson, 7,665 votes for Jill Stein, 4,930 votes for Virgil Goode, 112 votes for Rocky Anderson, 88 votes for Roseanne Barr, and 6,249 votes for other candidates. Wisconsin has an open primary (C=1), and there were 87,858 primary votes for Ron Paul. Wisconsin’s T-value is 1.947. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 1,629,794 votes for Barack Obama and 1,469,334 votes for Ron Paul. Obama still wins Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes.
Wyoming: The general election result was 170,962 votes for Mitt Romney, 69,286 votes for Barack Obama, 5,326 votes for Gary Johnson, 1,452 votes for Virgil Goode, and 2,035 votes for other candidates. Wyoming has a closed caucus (C=2), and there were 439 caucus votes for Ron Paul. Wyoming’s T-value is 15. Applying the equations, the vote becomes 253,743 votes for Ron Paul and 70,469 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins Wyoming’s 3 electoral votes, as Romney did.
National popular vote: The general election result was 65,915,835 votes for Barack Obama, 60,933,500 votes for Mitt Romney, 1,275,971 votes for Gary Johnson, 469,928 votes for Jill Stein, 131,877 votes for Virgil Goode, 67,326 votes for Roseanne Barr, 43,018 votes for Rocky Anderson, 26,204 votes for Ron Paul, and 226,520 votes for other candidates. There were 2,105,358 votes for Ron Paul in the Republican primaries and caucuses. Summing the above results, the vote becomes 70,214,176 votes for Ron Paul and 66,169,260 votes for Barack Obama. Paul wins the popular vote, which Romney failed to do. In all but five states, Paul has a better margin against Obama than Romney did. Romney had a better margin of victory than the estimation for Paul in Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Utah. These states are all Republican strongholds at present.
Electoral College: The result of the above analysis is that Paul defeats Obama by a 342−196 margin, compared to the 332−206 margin by which Obama defeated Romney. The difference is that Paul manages to win Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Washington, all of which were lost by Romney. Also, Paul does not lose any state that Romney won. This is a net gain of 136 electoral votes for the Republican candidate. In terms of states carried, Paul carries 36 and Obama carries 14+DC, while Obama carried 26+DC and Romney carried 24 in the real 2012 race. This produces the following electoral map.
In general, a larger T-value indicates a less reliable figure, as it indicates a very small primary or caucus turnout relative to the general election turnout. For the states that Paul flips into the Republican column, the minimum T-values that allow Paul to win are as follows: Maine 11.968, Washington 9.736, Minnesota 8.775, Nevada 5.352, Colorado 5.018, Iowa 3.031, New Mexico 2.899, Virginia 2.778, Pennsylvania 2.649, Florida 1.763, Ohio 1.755, New Hampshire 0.825. The last elections in which these states went Republican were as follows: Maine 1988, Washington 1984, Minnesota 1972, Nevada 2004, Colorado 2004, Iowa 2004, New Mexico 2004, Virginia 2004, Pennsylvania 1988, Florida 2004, Ohio 2004, New Hampshire 2000. Most of these states were considered by at least some commentators to be swing states, except for Washington. That Paul could have won Washington may seem surprising, but Paul had a strong showing in the caucus there with significant enthusiasm across party lines as well.
Now let us grant Obama some leeway and see what happens. If we exclude states that require a T-value above 8, Paul still wins the Electoral College by a 316−222 margin, with the following electoral map.
If we exclude states that require a T-value above 5, Paul still wins the Electoral College by a 301−237 margin, with the following electoral map.
If we exclude states that Republicans have not won since before 2000, Paul still wins the Electoral College by a 296−242 margin, with the following electoral map.
So, could Ron Paul have defeated Barack Obama? Absolutely. Would Ron Paul have defeated Barack Obama? We will never know.
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